Labour force participation rate hits 27-year low, outside the pandemic

Most employed Canadians are happy in their roles, Statistics Canada’s October employment survey showed, even as a growing number give up on the job hunt amid a softening labour market.
Canada’s jobless rate was 6.5 per cent last month, the agency said, as employers added some 15,000 positions to their payrolls, largely concentrated in full-time work. That follows a gain of 47,000 jobs in September.
Gains in the business, building and other support services sectors were offset by losses in finance, insurance and real estate in October.
Most economists had expected the unemployment rate to tick back up to 6.6 per cent in the month, but another decline in the proportions of people looking for work in Canada helped to keep the jobless rate flat.
Following the fourth monthly decline since May, StatCan said the participation rate in October was at its lowest levels since December 1997, outside the early years of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Canada’s youth unemployment rate ticked down 0.7 per cent to 12.8 per cent in October, helping to pare down what had been decades-high jobless levels in the summer. Young Canadians aged 15 to 24 added 33,000 jobs last month.
Meanwhile, StatCan said a survey of job satisfaction reveals more than six in 10 Canadians (61.3 per cent) indicated they’re “very satisfied” with their role. That’s down 0.9 percentage points from a year earlier, however.
Youth reported the lowest levels of workplace satisfaction with 55.3 per cent saying they were very satisfied, while late-career workers aged 55 to 69 were most likely to be happy with their lot (68.1 per cent).
Self-employed Canadians also more likely to say they were happy in their role: some 70 per cent said they were very satisfied, compared to roughly 60 per cent in both the public and private sector.
Average hourly wages accelerated last month as well, rising 4.9 per cent annually compared to 4.5 per cent in September.
The Bank of Canada has increasingly looked to shore up weakness in the Canadian jobs market, delivering a series of interest rate cuts since June. Stickiness in wage growth is one factor the central bank said it is continuing to watch as it gauges the future paths for inflation and interest rates.
While another rate cut is widely expected by economists, the question boils down to whether the central bank will continue the 50-basis-point pace lower after an oversized step in October, or revert back to more typical quarter-point cuts.
BMO chief economist Doug Porter said in a note to clients Friday morning that while wage gains are probably still “slightly hot for comfort,” the October jobs figures aren’t likely to sway the Bank of Canada meaningfully one way or another.
“This so-so result doesn’t really turn the dial on the Bank of Canada’s cut-o-meter, with the market still leaning slightly to a follow-up 50 bp reduction in December,” Porter said. He noted that the central bank has another full month of inflation and jobs data to consider before it has to make its final decision of the year on Dec. 11.
RBC assistant chief economist Nathan Janzen said in a note that the latest data shows “more urgency” for the central bank to react with another steeper, half-point cut next month to stimulate Canada’s flagging economy.
TD Bank’s James Orlando meanwhile argued for a 25-basis-point drop, but acknowledged that if the Bank of Canada is keen to get its policy rate into more neutral territory by the end of the year, another 50 basis points could be in the cards.